{
  "snapshot": "orestar-20250101-20260927-v1",
  "population": "30 committees with most visible filer-classified Individual record groups, cash contributions only",
  "committee_ids": [
    "33",
    "4572",
    "23285",
    "4792",
    "221",
    "19050",
    "4213",
    "142",
    "54",
    "39",
    "5208",
    "18726",
    "416",
    "191",
    "21206",
    "20102",
    "21823",
    "24693",
    "18821",
    "18888",
    "17999",
    "24365",
    "15109",
    "21655",
    "314",
    "2189",
    "16623",
    "17629",
    "18397",
    "21883"
  ],
  "record_groups": 31543,
  "edges": 32107,
  "hypotheses": 435,
  "seeds": [
    20260927,
    20260928
  ],
  "draws_per_chain": 199,
  "successful_swaps_per_draw": 32107,
  "burn_in_swaps_per_chain": 321070,
  "attempted_swaps": 14891231,
  "null": "Bipartite simple-edge swaps preserve each selected donor-group degree and each committee donor-group count. Dollars not permuted. Conditional on selected subgraph; unitemized donors absent.",
  "p_definition": "(1 + simulated overlaps >= observed)/(1 + 398 draws); dependent MCMC draws, mixing not proven by two-chain mean agreement.",
  "multiple_testing": "Benjamini–Hochberg over all 435 selected pairs; exploratory under dependent tests.",
  "communities": [
    [
      "142",
      "16623",
      "18821",
      "20102",
      "21883"
    ],
    [
      "4572"
    ],
    [
      "23285"
    ],
    [
      "221"
    ],
    [
      "17999",
      "18726",
      "314",
      "33",
      "39",
      "4213",
      "4792",
      "5208"
    ],
    [
      "19050",
      "21823",
      "2189",
      "24693",
      "416",
      "54"
    ],
    [
      "21655",
      "24365"
    ],
    [
      "15109",
      "17629",
      "18397",
      "18888",
      "191",
      "21206"
    ]
  ],
  "community_seed_agreement": true,
  "modularity": 0.4110359208072321,
  "top_pairs": [
    {
      "committee_a": "4792",
      "committee_b": "5208",
      "name_a": "Friends of Tina Kotek",
      "name_b": "Friends of Tobias Read",
      "shared_visible_groups": 127,
      "groups_a": 2981,
      "groups_b": 609,
      "jaccard": 0.036673404562518046,
      "null_mean_shared": 2.442211055276382,
      "excess_shared": 124.55778894472361,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.07035175879396993
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "24365",
      "committee_b": "21655",
      "name_a": "Friends of Jamie Collins",
      "name_b": "Morgan Loves Oregon",
      "shared_visible_groups": 31,
      "groups_a": 205,
      "groups_b": 198,
      "jaccard": 0.08333333333333333,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.0678391959798995,
      "excess_shared": 30.9321608040201,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.025125628140703515
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "4792",
      "committee_b": "18821",
      "name_a": "Friends of Tina Kotek",
      "name_b": "Friends of Deb Patterson",
      "shared_visible_groups": 28,
      "groups_a": 2981,
      "groups_b": 226,
      "jaccard": 0.008807801195344448,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.9748743718592965,
      "excess_shared": 27.025125628140703,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.03015075376884413
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "4792",
      "committee_b": "18726",
      "name_a": "Friends of Tina Kotek",
      "name_b": "Heather Buch for Oregon",
      "shared_visible_groups": 22,
      "groups_a": 2981,
      "groups_b": 399,
      "jaccard": 0.006551518761167362,
      "null_mean_shared": 1.685929648241206,
      "excess_shared": 20.314070351758794,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.33668341708542715
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "4792",
      "committee_b": "21206",
      "name_a": "Friends of Tina Kotek",
      "name_b": "Friends of Julia Brim-Edwards",
      "shared_visible_groups": 21,
      "groups_a": 2981,
      "groups_b": 288,
      "jaccard": 0.00646551724137931,
      "null_mean_shared": 1.2412060301507537,
      "excess_shared": 19.758793969849247,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.18090452261306544
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "4792",
      "committee_b": "18888",
      "name_a": "Friends of Tina Kotek",
      "name_b": "Gonzalez for Oregon",
      "shared_visible_groups": 20,
      "groups_a": 2981,
      "groups_b": 224,
      "jaccard": 0.006279434850863423,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.821608040201005,
      "excess_shared": 19.178391959798994,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.09547738693467334
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "15109",
      "committee_b": "17629",
      "name_a": "Novick for Portland",
      "name_b": "Friends of Eric Zimmerman",
      "shared_visible_groups": 19,
      "groups_a": 204,
      "groups_b": 187,
      "jaccard": 0.051075268817204304,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.07537688442211055,
      "excess_shared": 18.92462311557789,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.030150753768844227
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "21206",
      "committee_b": "17629",
      "name_a": "Friends of Julia Brim-Edwards",
      "name_b": "Friends of Eric Zimmerman",
      "shared_visible_groups": 19,
      "groups_a": 288,
      "groups_b": 187,
      "jaccard": 0.041666666666666664,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.09296482412060302,
      "excess_shared": 18.907035175879397,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.03517587939698494
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "21206",
      "committee_b": "15109",
      "name_a": "Friends of Julia Brim-Edwards",
      "name_b": "Novick for Portland",
      "shared_visible_groups": 17,
      "groups_a": 288,
      "groups_b": 204,
      "jaccard": 0.035789473684210524,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.07788944723618091,
      "excess_shared": 16.92211055276382,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.06532663316582915
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "19050",
      "committee_b": "24693",
      "name_a": "Friends of Christine Drazan",
      "name_b": "Dudley for Oregon",
      "shared_visible_groups": 17,
      "groups_a": 2205,
      "groups_b": 230,
      "jaccard": 0.007030603804797354,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.6959798994974874,
      "excess_shared": 16.304020100502512,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.11557788944723624
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "4792",
      "committee_b": "16623",
      "name_a": "Friends of Tina Kotek",
      "name_b": "Friends of Sonya Fischer",
      "shared_visible_groups": 16,
      "groups_a": 2981,
      "groups_b": 187,
      "jaccard": 0.005076142131979695,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.8165829145728644,
      "excess_shared": 15.183417085427136,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.0653266331658292
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "20102",
      "committee_b": "21883",
      "name_a": "Friends of Nafisa Fai",
      "name_b": "Tammy for Oregon",
      "shared_visible_groups": 13,
      "groups_a": 287,
      "groups_b": 168,
      "jaccard": 0.029411764705882353,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.05778894472361809,
      "excess_shared": 12.942211055276381,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.03517587939698492
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "19050",
      "committee_b": "21823",
      "name_a": "Friends of Christine Drazan",
      "name_b": "Ed Diehl for Oregon",
      "shared_visible_groups": 13,
      "groups_a": 2205,
      "groups_b": 277,
      "jaccard": 0.005265289590927501,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.9246231155778895,
      "excess_shared": 12.075376884422111,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.10050251256281406
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "21206",
      "committee_b": "18397",
      "name_a": "Friends of Julia Brim-Edwards",
      "name_b": "Friends of Pam Treece",
      "shared_visible_groups": 12,
      "groups_a": 288,
      "groups_b": 186,
      "jaccard": 0.025974025974025976,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.07788944723618091,
      "excess_shared": 11.922110552763819,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.005025125628140711
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "20102",
      "committee_b": "18888",
      "name_a": "Friends of Nafisa Fai",
      "name_b": "Gonzalez for Oregon",
      "shared_visible_groups": 12,
      "groups_a": 287,
      "groups_b": 224,
      "jaccard": 0.02404809619238477,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.09296482412060302,
      "excess_shared": 11.907035175879397,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.0050251256281406975
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "4792",
      "committee_b": "20102",
      "name_a": "Friends of Tina Kotek",
      "name_b": "Friends of Nafisa Fai",
      "shared_visible_groups": 13,
      "groups_a": 2981,
      "groups_b": 287,
      "jaccard": 0.0039938556067588326,
      "null_mean_shared": 1.1683417085427135,
      "excess_shared": 11.831658291457286,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.005025125628140836
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "18888",
      "committee_b": "18397",
      "name_a": "Gonzalez for Oregon",
      "name_b": "Friends of Pam Treece",
      "shared_visible_groups": 11,
      "groups_a": 224,
      "groups_b": 186,
      "jaccard": 0.02756892230576441,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.06532663316582915,
      "excess_shared": 10.93467336683417,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.020100502512562804
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "4792",
      "committee_b": "17629",
      "name_a": "Friends of Tina Kotek",
      "name_b": "Friends of Eric Zimmerman",
      "shared_visible_groups": 11,
      "groups_a": 2981,
      "groups_b": 187,
      "jaccard": 0.003484320557491289,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.8417085427135679,
      "excess_shared": 10.158291457286433,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.045226130653266305
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "4792",
      "committee_b": "17999",
      "name_a": "Friends of Tina Kotek",
      "name_b": "Equal Rights For All",
      "shared_visible_groups": 11,
      "groups_a": 2981,
      "groups_b": 216,
      "jaccard": 0.003452605147520402,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.9221105527638191,
      "excess_shared": 10.077889447236181,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.025125628140703515
    },
    {
      "committee_a": "4792",
      "committee_b": "15109",
      "name_a": "Friends of Tina Kotek",
      "name_b": "Novick for Portland",
      "shared_visible_groups": 11,
      "groups_a": 2981,
      "groups_b": 204,
      "jaccard": 0.003465658475110271,
      "null_mean_shared": 0.9673366834170855,
      "excess_shared": 10.032663316582914,
      "permutation_p": 0.002506265664160401,
      "bh_q": 0.02725563909774436,
      "chain_mean_difference": 0.07537688442211044
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "No coordination inference; shared sources may reflect geography, ideology, party, incumbency or donor popularity.",
    "Fingerprints are not reviewed individual identities. All named pair interpretations remain qualified.",
    "Community labels are not political identities; two seeds are a stability diagnostic, not comprehensive validation.",
    "Sparse/missing donor disclosure can change the graph; thresholds and selected population matter."
  ],
  "download": "/data/campaign-finance/shared-donor-tests.csv",
  "sha256": "cd81e642dcf9d3fc7241b1e94c4aa6dc53098b87435b008c6c784d7cb1dd8b07"
}