Testing the claims about the 2026 election
Six ran.
Six won.
Every Portland council incumbent on the ballot is winning another term. People are already saying what that proves about incumbency and ranked choice voting. This page tracks what the records can show so far.
2026 figures: Multnomah County Preliminary Results 6, run Nov. 9. The county certifies by Nov. 30.
2024 figures: every certified ballot, recounted by us.
How we checked ↓01 / The closest thing to an experiment
Two candidates were level in 2024.
One took office.
Fields change between elections, so raw vote shares mislead. The fairer comparison uses only candidates who ran both times, and asks how voters split among them.
Council District 4
4 candidates ran in both elections. 90.0% of 2024 voters ranked at least one of them.
Council District 3
9 candidates ran in both elections. 92.3% of 2024 voters ranked at least one of them.
The other 6 returning candidates each had under 5% in both years: together 10.1% in 2024 and 5.2% in 2026.
2024: first choice among returning candidates, from ballots2026: share of their first-round votes2026, candidate who lost in 2024
8,005 and 8,123
First choices for Eric Zimmerman and Eli Arnold in 2024. Zimmerman won the third seat on transfers.
30,859 to 25,819
2024 ballots that ranked Arnold above Mitch Green, against those that ranked Green above Arnold. Green won a seat and Arnold did not.
13,616 and 6,956
First choices for Zimmerman and Arnold in 2026. Green’s rose from 10,387 to 19,705.
This is what an advantage from holding office would look like. It is not proof of one. Two years of votes and news coverage separate these elections, the 2026 field was smaller, and a midterm draws different voters than a presidential year. District 3 offers no comparable test, because none of its returning challengers had much support either time.
The 2024 bars come from ballots, with every other candidate removed. The 2026 bars use first-round votes only, because the county has not released 2026 ballots. Once it does, both years can be measured the same way.
02 / How far ahead
No challenger
came close.
A council seat takes one more than a quarter of the votes. The table shows each incumbent’s first choices as a share of that threshold.
| Candidate | 2024 first choices | Share of threshold | 2026 first choices | Share of threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Novick · District 3 | 20,457 | 0.96 | 21,633 | 1.03 |
| Angelita Morillo · District 3 | 16,399 | 0.77 | 21,303 | 1.02 |
| Tiffany Koyama Lane · District 3 | 16,320 | 0.77 | 21,101 | 1.01 |
| Olivia Clark · District 4 | 19,138 | 0.99 | 20,851 | 1.12 |
| Mitch Green · District 4 | 10,387 | 0.54 | 19,705 | 1.06 |
| Eric Zimmerman · District 4 | 8,005 | 0.41 | 13,616 | 0.73 |
76.9%
of District 3 first choices went to the three winners. In 2024 it was 62.9%. The strongest challenger, Kellie Torres, had 7,847 first choices against a threshold of 20,832.
73.2%
of District 4 first choices went to the three winners. In 2024 it was 48.9%. The strongest challenger, Eli Arnold, had 6,956 first choices against a threshold of 18,495.
Round 11
is when Zimmerman reached the District 4 threshold, the only seat that needed transfers. Arnold had 10,454 votes when the count ended.
03 / Did the counting method matter?
In 2024, one seat
turned on the rule.
We recounted the certified 2024 ballots under four other common rules. District 3 elects the same three people every time. District 4 does not.
| Rule | District 3 | District 4 |
|---|---|---|
| The actual count: single transferable vote | Novick, Morillo, Koyama Lane | Clark, Green, Zimmerman |
| First choices only: the three with the most | Novick, Morillo, Koyama Lane | Clark, Green, Arnold |
| Three equal votes: each voter’s top three | Novick, Koyama Lane, Morillo | Clark, Zimmerman, Arnold |
| Head to head: the three who beat the most rivals | Novick, Morillo, Koyama Lane | Clark, Zimmerman, Arnold |
| Points by rank: six for a first choice down to one | Novick, Koyama Lane, Morillo | Clark, Zimmerman, Arnold |
Under each alternative, Eli Arnold takes a District 4 seat in 2024, in place of Mitch Green or Eric Zimmerman. The transferable vote seats a candidate once a quarter of the voters settle on that candidate, and Green got there on transfers from voters whose earlier choices were eliminated. The other rules favor candidates who are acceptable to more voters, even as a lower choice.
For 2026 one of these can be checked now. Counting first choices alone would elect the same six people the transferable vote is electing. The other three rules need the ballots.
These recounts assume voters would have marked their ballots the same way under a different rule. Some would not have.
04 / The yardstick for 2026
How voters used
the ballot in 2024.
Whether voters are getting more comfortable with ranking is a question about change. These are the 2024 numbers the 2026 ballots will be compared with.
| Measure | District 3 | District 4 |
|---|---|---|
| Ballots that marked the contest | 85,115 | 77,332 |
| Candidates on the ballot | 30 | 30 |
| Average number of candidates ranked | 4.55 | 4.48 |
| Ranked only one candidate | 6.9% | 6.8% |
| Ranked six different candidates | 48.6% | 45.9% |
| Marked two candidates as first choice | 0.76% | 0.89% |
| Had no ranking that could be counted | 600 | 615 |
| Ranked at least one winner | 87.3% | 85.7% |
| Vote counted toward electing a winner | 77.1% | 77.5% |
The last two rows use ballots with at least one countable ranking. The candidate counts exclude the write-in line.
05 / What people are saying
13 claims.
4 we can speak to now.
We wrote down each claim and how we would test it on November 11, before any 2026 ballot file existed. Every result will be reported here, whichever way it comes out.
All six council incumbents held their seats, and incumbency beat money.
Partly answeredAll six lead in the November 9 count and none is close to losing. The comparison with money waits for the campaigns’ post-election finance reports.
The system protects incumbents so strongly that even an unpopular one would win, carried by the others.
Laurie Wimmer, Northwest Oregon Labor Council, quoted by OPB, November 4 ↗
Needs the 2026 ballot filesThe test is whether each incumbent beats each challenger head to head and whether any incumbent needed another incumbent’s surplus to win. Only individual ballots can show that.
Mitch Green’s 2026 result shows his 2024 win was not a fluke.
Partly answeredGreen’s share of first choices rose from 13.5% to 26.6%, and he passed the threshold in the first round. In 2024 more voters ranked Eli Arnold above him than the reverse. Whether that changed needs the 2026 ballots.
More than three in four voters help elect a winner under this system.
Partly answeredIn District 3, 76.9% of first choices went to the three winners, so the claim holds there on first choices alone. In District 4 the figure is 73.2% before transfers. The full measure needs the ballots.
Results with ranked-choice rounds were posted within 15 minutes of polls closing.
Not yet checkedWe have not yet compared the timestamps on the county’s first reports.
Sharon Meieran’s voters favored Julia Brim-Edwards over Shannon Singleton, and it was not enough.
Answered by the current countIn the November 9 count Brim-Edwards gained 29,584 votes in the second round and Singleton gained 21,206. Singleton still finished ahead, 182,124 to 125,799.
A “do not rank” guide urged voters to leave certain candidates off their ballots.
Needs the 2026 ballot filesThe test is whether short ballots became more common than in 2024 and whether the named candidates were ranked less often than their first-choice support predicts.
Outside spending for Kellie Torres and against Mitch Green did not move votes.
Needs campaign finance filingsThis needs the final independent expenditure reports and precinct results, which the county publishes at certification.
Money is overrated in council races.
Needs campaign finance filingsWe will compare spending per vote across both elections once post-election reports are filed.
The result is a mandate for the council’s left bloc.
Nick Caleb, Portland Democratic Socialists of America, quoted by OPB, November 4 ↗
Needs the 2026 ballot filesFirst-choice shares rose for all six incumbents, including the three the group did not endorse. Whether one bloc’s support grew more needs ballots that show who was ranked together.
The result is a repudiation of the Portland Metro Chamber.
Needs the 2026 ballot filesThe same limit applies. Every incumbent gained first-choice share, so first choices alone cannot separate the blocs.
Turnout in Multnomah County reached roughly 64% to 70%.
Needs certified resultsThe county publishes certified turnout and precinct statistics by November 30.
Measure 26-267, participatory budgeting, lost about two to one.
Needs certified resultsWe will report the certified result and where the measure ran strongest once precinct results are published.
Method / Data
Our count matches
the county’s, every round.
Before using a ballot file for anything else, we recount the election from it under the City’s rules and compare each round with the certified report.
| Contest | Ballots that marked it | Threshold | Rounds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Councilor, District 1 | 43,669 | 10,718 | 17 |
| Councilor, District 2 | 77,686 | 19,290 | 23 |
| Councilor, District 3 | 85,115 | 21,129 | 30 |
| Councilor, District 4 | 77,332 | 19,180 | 32 |
| Mayor | 311,803 | 154,982 | 20 |
What is counted
The 2024 figures use the ballot records the county tabulated for its certified results. We follow Portland City Code 2.08.030: the threshold is fixed from the first round, a rank marked for two candidates is skipped, and surplus votes move at a fraction truncated to four decimal places. Two ties for last place were settled by lot in 2024, and we use the county’s recorded outcomes.
What is not known yet
The county has not published 2026 ballot records, precinct results or certified turnout. We requested the ballot records on November 11. Until they arrive, nothing here describes how 2026 voters ranked candidates beyond the totals in the county’s round reports.
No margins of error
These tables count every ballot, so they are exact for the files they come from. Later updates to the 2026 count can still change its numbers. The comparisons between years describe what happened. They do not establish why.
What comes next
With the 2026 ballots we will measure head-to-head results for every pair of candidates, how many votes stopped counting and why, which candidates voters ranked together, and each claim above. Precinct results arrive with certification.