The question catalogue

$121,794,170.02

Method: Sum Cash Contribution Amount in integer cents.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Cash expenditures $91,270,955.55; in-kind support $10,947,490.20; loans received $1,267,729.83; new reported obligations $5,395,303.63. These are separate bases.

Method: Explicit 24-subtype accounting map.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Boundary tables separate observed committees, committees outside the filer set, unidentified categories and counterparties with no committee ID. The last group is not automatically outside money.

Method: Classify both sides by authoritative committee ID; do not sum reciprocal filings as economic inflows.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Official summaries cover 25 selected committees and 41 committee-years. 39 agree with snapshot cash flows; 2 retain differences. This is not statewide balance coverage.

Method: Verified opening balances, summary cash definitions, year roll-forward and unresolved differences.

Limit: Targeted committee coverage only. Official summary observations are not independently audited bank statements. City disbursements and committee receipts are overlapping records, not additive funding.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Across 54,551 visible record groups, Gini is 0.905366; the top ten provide 21.49% of identified cash dollars.

Method: Gini, HHI, top-source shares and effective number, conditional on positive visible groups.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

The dependency table gives every committee’s top-one/top-ten shares, HHI, Gini, effective group count and unidentified share; small denominators remain visible.

Method: Within-committee cumulative source amounts, with a separate total-cash denominator.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Strict reciprocal transfers total $7,796,853.20. Disclosure sensitivity reports a diffuse-source HHI infimum and an upper scenario attaching unidentified amounts to the largest visible source.

Method: Separate transfer basis; partial-identification scenarios, not estimated hidden identities.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

No. Gifts are accumulated by committee and conservative record group; visible cumulative totals can exceed any individual gift-size threshold. Prior unitemized gifts cannot be allocated back to people.

Method: Compare gift-size bands with cumulative donor–committee totals.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

The donor–committee evidence contains gift counts, first/last dates and cumulative giving; the dependency table reports each committee’s repeat-group share. These are record-group cohorts, not verified person counts.

Method: Repeat = more than one cash-contribution row in the observed interval.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Aggregate rows are not people. A total person count or retention rate covering those rows is not identifiable from this snapshot.

Method: Itemized source identities and longitudinal resolution; do not impute people from transaction counts.

Limit: Aggregate rows are not people. A total person count or retention rate covering those rows is not identifiable from this snapshot.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Separate totals are published for filer-classified individuals, business entities, labor organizations, candidate/family, political committees and unspecified types. These are reported classifications, not reviewed industries.

Method: Address-book type totals on cash-contribution basis.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

A complete reviewed organizational-affiliation crosswalk has not been established. Similar names or employment fields are insufficient to assign industry ownership.

Method: Official organizational records, effective dates and reviewed entity links.

Limit: A complete reviewed organizational-affiliation crosswalk has not been established. Similar names or employment fields are insufficient to assign industry ownership.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Employment fields alone do not establish direction, reimbursement or coordination; occupation/employer missingness is material.

Method: Separate individual giving from organizational funds; source-based case review and alternative explanations.

Limit: Employment fields alone do not establish direction, reimbursement or coordination; occupation/employer missingness is material.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

The geographic evidence retains all three categories and exact dollar totals; unknown locations are not silently excluded from the overall denominator.

Method: Reported counterparty-state classification.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

City strings do not identify neighborhoods or districts. No population-normalized neighborhood measure is published without an audited geographic crosswalk.

Method: Official boundaries, Census denominators, validated geographic joins and missing-location sensitivity.

Limit: City strings do not identify neighborhoods or districts. No population-normalized neighborhood measure is published without an audited geographic crosswalk.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Across 17 reviewed Portland District 3/4 committees, reported nonmatching cash classifies as $140,703.32 from an address or whole ZIP area inside the candidate district, $186,902.12 outside, and $379,889.61 unresolved. The local City address-point join placed 954 transactions exactly. City matching receipts stay separate.

Method: Local exact street-address/ZIP join to public City address points and official council polygons; unmatched records use only whole-ZCTA inside/disjoint classifications; aggregate and boundary-crossing ZIPs stay uncertain.

Limit: A reported source address is not verified residence or eligibility. ZIP proxies are approximate. Only 17 reviewed committees are covered, and transaction counts are not unique people.

17 reviewed Portland District 3/4 candidate committees, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

All 435 pairs among the 30 committees with most visible individual groups are tested. The underlying graph has 31,543 groups and 32,107 distinct committee links.

Method: Bipartite graph, Jaccard overlap, degree-preserving edge swaps, two fixed seeds, 398 null draws, Benjamini–Hochberg correction.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

The pair table reports observed overlap, null expectation, excess shared groups and adjusted exploratory p-values. The null preserves donor-group and committee degrees within the selected subgraph.

Method: Conditional MCMC permutation test; no coordination inference.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

The two fixed-seed community partitions agreed on the selected projection. That diagnostic does not establish stability under entity-resolution changes, missing donors or different populations, and does not establish coordination.

Method: Weighted projection and Louvain diagnostic; explicit scope limits.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

1,454 unique same-day reciprocal pairs, totaling $7,796,853.20; both filings retained.

Method: Reciprocal authoritative IDs, exact cents, same day and uniqueness within a seven-day candidate window.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

2,419 candidate pairs fail strict same-day uniqueness; these are pair counts, not counts of distinct economic transfers.

Method: Seven-day candidate matching; no greedy one-to-one assignment.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Commingled funds do not identify dollar-level provenance. Financial paths can be possible without being uniquely attributable.

Method: Association-ledger review and bounded allocation scenarios; never present scenarios as tracing proof.

Limit: Commingled funds do not identify dollar-level provenance. Financial paths can be possible without being uniquely attributable.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

The payee evidence ranks conservative noncommittee cash-payee groups and counts their filing-committee relationships. Payments are not necessarily vendor earnings.

Method: Group cash payments; exclude authoritative committee counterparties and disclosure categories.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Exact reported purpose-code bundles are tabulated. A multi-code payment is counted once in its bundle, not fully attributed to every category.

Method: Mutually exclusive source-code combinations; no invented allocations.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Campaign reports show committee payments, not the recipient’s cost structure or onward transfers.

Method: Invoices, association details, reimbursement review and recipient financial records.

Limit: Campaign reports show committee payments, not the recipient’s cost structure or onward transfers.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

77 of 137 records in the independent-checkbox search have parsed target details, yielding 227 allocation rows. 60 records remain gaps and 10 parsed records have allocation differences. Partial evidence is published; it is not a complete statewide total.

Method: Verify archived detail hashes and snapshot amounts; parse reported support/oppose labels and allocations; keep financial bases separate.

Limit: Target names are not reviewed race identities. Some records remain uncollected or fail validation. An allocation difference can reflect a partial expense allocation or another ordinary explanation; source review is required.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

This comparison requires complete target-to-race allocation and a reviewed candidate-committee crosswalk, not just expenditure names.

Method: Separate candidate-controlled spending from independent support/oppose allocations.

Limit: This comparison requires complete target-to-race allocation and a reviewed candidate-committee crosswalk, not just expenditure names.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

The City reports $1,542,435.00 distributed to 13 certified candidates; reviewed matching receipts in the snapshot total $1,363,713.00. These overlapping sources are not added. Differences remain visible by candidate.

Method: Archive City program records and reconcile payments by committee/date/amount.

Limit: Targeted committee coverage only. Official summary observations are not independently audited bank statements. City disbursements and committee receipts are overlapping records, not additive funding.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Program participation is selected, not randomly assigned; the current matched race sample does not support a causal effect estimate.

Method: Comparable-campaign descriptive comparisons, selection analysis, validated local-donor definitions.

Limit: Program participation is selected, not randomly assigned; the current matched race sample does not support a causal effect estimate.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Monthly transaction-date measures are available for each financial basis. September 2026 contains only days 1–27 and remains subject to later filing.

Method: Inclusive monthly aggregation with basis separation.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Current-version filing lag and transaction-date activity are published separately. An amended row’s lag is not its original public-disclosure latency.

Method: Stratify by Original versus Amended status; no causal event attribution.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

A change point does not identify intention. Election alignment and sufficient comparable pre/post observations are needed before calling a change strategic.

Method: Prespecified event windows, reporting-lag checks and campaign-source corroboration.

Limit: A change point does not identify intention. Election alignment and sufficient comparable pre/post observations are needed before calling a change strategic.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

The dependency table subtracts the largest visible cash-source group from visible receipts. This is explicitly a forgone-receipts scenario, not a prediction of current liquidity.

Method: Within-committee top-source exclusion, no beginning-balance assumption.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Selected committee profiles now show official opening/closing cash and reported outstanding debt, with source timestamps and snapshot reconciliation. Statewide coverage and runway estimates remain unavailable.

Method: Verified opening balances, repayment/forgiveness schedules, cancellations and operating-burn definitions.

Limit: Targeted committee coverage only. Official summary observations are not independently audited bank statements. City disbursements and committee receipts are overlapping records, not additive funding.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

The election has not happened at the September 27 cutoff. No outcome or causal analysis is possible.

Method: No outcome model for pending elections.

Limit: The election has not happened at the September 27 cutoff. No outcome or causal analysis is possible.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

A sufficiently complete certified-result and race crosswalk with pre-election finance windows has not yet been validated for this edition. A multilevel model without that foundation would be misleading.

Method: Certified outcomes; race-appropriate single-seat versus multi-seat measures; grouped/temporal holdouts, regularization and uncertainty.

Limit: A sufficiently complete certified-result and race crosswalk with pre-election finance windows has not yet been validated for this edition. A multilevel model without that foundation would be misleading.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Amendment and missingness tables preserve counts by transaction family and field. Missingness is not automatically a violation: field requirements differ by record type.

Method: Current-version status and explicit blank-field counts.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

32,258 contribution-family rows total $12,084,155.64. They cannot establish distinct donors, cross-campaign ties or person-level giving histories.

Method: Committee-scoped disclosure buckets, excluded from identity graph.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

The current-version snapshot omits superseded amendments and deletions. Current Filed Date alone cannot reconstruct a past public view.

Method: Historical version retrieval with original disclosure and amendment timestamps.

Limit: The current-version snapshot omits superseded amendments and deletions. Current Filed Date alone cannot reconstruct a past public view.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Official lobbying/consultant disclosure sources are located, but complete dated and reviewed entity joins have not been established. Name-only coincidences are not published as connections.

Method: Verified public-record joins, effective dates and case-specific source review.

Limit: Official lobbying/consultant disclosure sources are located, but complete dated and reviewed entity joins have not been established. Name-only coincidences are not published as connections.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

The transaction ledger cannot establish motive or causation. Even verified overlap needs plausible alternative explanations and defensible comparisons.

Method: Dated decision records, policy context and a credible identification strategy; otherwise descriptive case studies only.

Limit: The transaction ledger cannot establish motive or causation. Even verified overlap needs plausible alternative explanations and defensible comparisons.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

The 100 largest cash records are provided as magnitude-based leads, not a misconduct score. Legitimate committee transfers, media buys and aggregate records can be large.

Method: Absolute magnitude ranking with accounting basis and source transaction IDs.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

Yes: a $1,208,352.82 PAC payment and next-day receipt are outside the strict same-day transfer match. Repeated names can be separate identities or address variants. Both counterexamples remain visible.

Method: Review seven-day transfer candidates and same-name candidate groups rather than auto-merging.

Limit: Current reported versions only; findings describe the fixed observation window, not complete election cycles.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending

No. Exploratory anomalies require peer comparisons, multiple-testing controls and original-source review; normal reporting conventions can generate them.

Method: Robust within-peer methods plus investigation log and counterevidence; no automated allegation labels.

Limit: No. Exploratory anomalies require peer comparisons, multiple-testing controls and original-source review; normal reporting conventions can generate them.

ORESTAR snapshot, 2025-01-01 through 2026-09-27 unless explicitly narrowed · calculation checked; editorial and expanded source review pending